Everyone knows the rule of large numbers will prove that a coin has a 50% chance of landing on a chosen side. Most will also agree that given a small sample this number can vary. If you flip the coin only 10 times you might have 6 heads or possibly 7. Does this mean that somehow your coin has torn a hole in the very fabric of the mathematical truths that tie scientific theory together? Probably not, unless you are in politics in which case fiscal anomalies are common.
The point is that our perception tells us that the NFL’s overtime system is flawed after watching countless teams lose in OT without their offense ever stepping on the field. But in reality since the NFL began overtime the overall winning percentage of the teams who chose the right coin face is only 54%. You would and should expect 50% which would make the coin toss statistically irrelevant. We can add to this that 70% of the time BOTH teams have a possession. That means the team that wins the coin toss has a 30% chance of driving down the field and scoring from the initial kickoff.
I realize that reading numbers begins to glaze eyes and perk ears in hope of a distracting noise, but they do not lie. Statistically there is little advantage to winning the coin toss and even if you want to focus on the 4% discrepancy, you can’t argue that a team is an offense and a defense and if your defense cannot stop the opposing team’s offense you still lost as a team with or without an offensive possession.
Anyone who wants to whine about losing in overtime should have put more points on the board during the first 60 minutes of regulation.
